ForecastIQ expects comps to improve in BTS season

Retail Editor 8, July 28, 2010

Columbus, Ohio - Back-to-school sales are expected to show a year-over-year increase, with same-store sales for select youth and value-oriented retailers benefiting most.

A new study from Proper Technologies' ForecastIQ conducted by Bigresearch also found the overall outlook is mixed, as 15 retailers have fallen into the "likely decline/almost certain decline" category for August and September than in June, when the rate was 14 retailers.

Of the retailers tracked for the July 2010 report, six expect an "almost certain increase" for August and September versus four in the same period last year. 

The number of retailers who said they expect a "likely increase" stayed the same year over year at five. Those expecting "flat" results dipped to one versus four in July 2009. A "likely decline" was predicted by 12 retailers compared to eight last year. And an "almost certain decline" went down to three from six last July.

Indicators for August and September forecast that the off-pricers Ross Stores and TJX Companies' nameplates are almost certain to see growth. Fred's, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Children's Place are likely to experience an increase in same-store sales over last year. Warehouse clubs are also expected to see growth through September -- Costco is ranked as almost certain to and BJ's as likely.

Almost certain to see a decline retailers include Stein Mart, Gap and stage. Among those listed as likely to see a decline are The Bon-Ton Stores, Dillard's, and J.C. Penney.

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