ForecastIQ: September Consumer Confidence Pre-holiday Hits Lowest Reading in 10 years
November 15, 2011,
That is according to the September ForecastIQ survey, a service from Prosper Technologies, which projects same store sales growth/decline through November.
"Just when you think consumers would be gearing up, it seems that they are tightening their purse strings causing overall predictions to be down from last month," ForecastIQ said.
With consumer confidence at 22.7%, representing the lowest September reading in the survey's 10-year history, "Lack of faith in the economy is likely a factor in this retrenchment," the survey concluded.
Of the 22 retailers tracked, eight are projected to almost certainly see an increase in same-store sales over last year, while five are likely to experience an increase. On the other hand, comparable sales are likely to decline for six retailers and almost certain for three.
Forecasts for value-oriented and luxury retailers are promising, but the road ahead for middle market retailers looks more challenging, according to the girm. As was the case during Holiday 2010, consumers intend to be budget-focused and sale-oriented.
ForecastIQ predicted BJ's, Costco, and Ross are among those almost certain to see a comp increase while Dillard's, Fred's and TJX are likely to experience same-store sales gains.
Bon-Ton and JCPenney are among those likely to see a decline over last year; Gap and Stage are the two on the list who are predicted to almost certainly see a decline.