ForecastIQ finds comp sales outlook slightly better in September over August

Retail Editor 8, Cynthia Myers, September 30, 2010

Columbus, Ohio - Expectations for retailers' same-store sales performance in September pulled almost even with August, as roughly half predicted increases and almost half expected to suffer declines, noted ForecastIQ in its most recent study.

Of the 27 retailers tracked, 13 - including off-price chains and warehouse clubs - are forecasted to experience "likely" or "almost certain" increases in comparable store sales this month, and 12 - including mid-tier department stores - are predicted to endure "likely" or "almost certain" declines.

Specifically, value-driven retailers Ross and TJMaxx are almost certain to see growth, Fred's is likely, and Costco and BJ's are also poised to experience increases, according to ForecastIQ. But JCPenney, The Bon-Ton Stores and Dillard's are "likely" to see a decline in comps.

"Although consumer confidence is down, the approaching holiday season may bring a slight uptick in demand, improving the same-store sales forecast for retailers who are delivering value to their customers," said ForecastIQ, which analyzes more than eight years of data from consumer research firm BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of more than 27 publicly-held retailers.

The results provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance; same-store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45- and 75-day period.

ForecastIQ noted an "almost certain increase" indicator for September means that in October and November, retailers are almost certain to experience same-store sales growth from the same period a year ago.



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