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ForecastIQ: Holiday sales expected to be good - for some

Retail Editor 8, November 2, 2010

Columbus, Ohio - It looks like any success felt this holiday at retail will be sliced right down the middle, as about 14 of the 27 stores tracked by ForecastIQ are expected to likely or almost certainly see sales growth in November and December.

As for the other half, nine are likely/almost certain to experience declines and four are projected to remain flat.

This is what ForecastIQ, a service from Prosper Technologies LLC, found in its October report. ForecastIQ analyzes more than eight years of data from the BigResearch monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of more than 27 publicly held retailers.

"Types of retailers forecasted to experience growth in same store sales over the next 60 days are also a mixed bag," ForecastIQ.

High-end retailer Saks is almost certain to see growth and Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom are likely, "indicating the luxury consumer may be back, at least for the holidays," ForecastIQ added.

Warehouse clubs Costco and BJ's, offpricers Ross and TJX and mid-tier department store JCPenney are either almost certain or likely to see an increase, "indicating that consumers are still considering the ‘value equation' in their purchases," ForecastIQ concluded.

Spanning all levels of retail - specialty, department and discount - are the retailers forecasted to remain flat, like The Bon-Ton Stores, or experience declines.


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