Summer comps expected to soften

Clubs and off-pricers forecast to beat high-end counterparts

Retail Editor 8, July 1, 2010

Columbus, Ohio - ForecastIQ, with BigResearch, reports that same-store sales for June are dropping back to January levels as opposed to April's high.

"For every two steps forward the economy seems to take two steps back," noted ForecastIQ, which was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over eight years of data from BigResearch's monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers.

Better news is that the number of retailers expected to "almost certainly" see a decline has lessened since the beginning of the year, indicating a glimmer of hope in the rocky recovery ahead.

In June, of the total number for retailers tracked, four are expected to experience "almost certain increase" in same store sales, which is the same rate as January 2010 but half of April's eight count. "Likely to increase" status came to five, at "flat" are four, eight are "likely to decline," and six are expected to experience an "almost certain decline," the report said.

More specifically, indicators for July and August forecast that clubs and off-price chains - BJ's Wholesale Club, Costco Wholesale Club, Ross Stores, and TJ Maxx - are all almost certain to see growth in same store sales, mirroring their May forecasts.

Among youth specialty retailers, Aeropostale has improved to "likely to see an increase" from being flat last month, and Abercrombie & Fitch also improved from an "almost certain decline" to a flat indicator.

On the other hand, high-end retailers are off from last month, with Neiman Marcus dropping to "likely to see an increase" status from "almost certain" last month, and Saks now likely to experience decline (as opposed flat).

Department stores and specialty retailers that target adults don't fare as well. Dillard's, J.C. Penney and The Gap are all almost certain to post a decline, and Banana Republic and the Bon-Ton Stores are likely to see a decline in their same store sales numbers, according to the report.

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