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Government shutdown does little to hamper October retail imports

Washington D.C. - Despite the government shutdown, import volume at the nation's major retail container ports grew 6.5% in October over the same month last year, and year-over-year increases are expected to continue for the remainder of the year.

This is according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"Retailers place their orders for merchandise months ahead of time, so cargo arriving at the ports in October and for most of the rest of the year was ordered long before anybody ever heard of a shutdown," said Jonathan Gold, vp for supply chain and customs policy. "The question at this point isn't how much merchandise arrived but how much consumers bought, and how they are going to react as economic talks continue in Washington. Lawmakers need to take steps that build confidence, not continue the uncertainty."

While some government workers involved with clearing cargo were furloughed during the 16-day shutdown, U.S. Customs and Border Protection inspectors remained on the job and no major disruptions of cargo handling were reported, NRF noted.

The cargo numbers come as NRF is predicting that this year's holiday sales will grow 3.9% over last year to a total of $602.1 billion. Cargo import data tracks the number of cargo containers, but is not a predictor of the value of the merchandise inside them. The 4.35 million cargo containers handled during the period of August, September and October - when most holiday season merchandise flows into the country - increased 4.3% over last year and account for 26.8% of all retail imports for the entire year.

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker include: Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades and Miami on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Together, these ports handled 1.43 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in September, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 3.6% from August but up 2% from September 2012.

One TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

October was estimated at 1.43 million TEU, unchanged from September but up 6.5% from last year. November is forecast at 1.33 million TEU, up 3.3% from last year; and December at 1.31 million TEU, up 1.8%. January 2014 is forecast at 1.35 million TEU, up 3% from January 2013; February at 1.18 million TEU, down 7.5% from last year; and March at 1.33 million TEU, up 17%.


The total for 2013 is forecast at 16.2 million TEU, up 2.3% from 2012's 15.8 million TEU. The first six months of 2013 totaled 7.8 million TEU, up 1.2% from the first half of 2012.


Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the 2.3% increase for the year is down from the previously forecast 2.7% partly due to the shutdown but also because of a relatively high inventory-to-sales ratio.

"The GDP forecast for the remainder of this year is not expected to be seriously impacted by the government shutdown and growth going forward should be back to its expansionary path," Hackett said. "The first half of 2014 will bring solid growth back."



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