ForecastIQ finds comp outlook better than '09 but weak month over month
August 31, 2010,
Columbus, Ohio - While same-store sales outlook has improved from this time last year, it has retreated month over month, with more stores almost certain to see a decline in the next 75 days, compared to last month, and fewer saying they are almost certain to experience an increase, according to the most recent report from ForecastIQ.
Additionally, growth "appears sideways, not up, as consumers realign their spending," observed ForecastIQ, which was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing more than eight years of data from the BIGresearch monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions surveys and the same store sales of more than 27 publicly held retailers.
"For some, this realignment seems to mean shopping more discounters. For luxury buyers, it may mean stepping back into high-end retailers," ForecastIQ concluded from its latest findings.
"Indicators for September and October forecast that value-focused retailers Ross and TJX are almost certain to see growth. Neiman Marcus is almost certain and Nordstrom is likely to see an increase, and although Saks is not up, this high-end retailer is not down either."
Of the retailers offering home textiles and home furnishings who said they are "almost certain to see an increase" in same-store sales in the coming two and a half months was Costco in the company o off-price chains TJMaxx and Ross Stores. Those "likely to see an increase" included BJ's and Fred's.
The Bon-Ton Stores was categorized as "likely to see a decline." Among those "almost certain to see a decline" in same store sales were Dillard's, JCPenney and Stein Mart.
ForecastIQ noted that an "almost certain increase" indicator for August means that in September and October, retailers are almost certain to experience same-store sales growth from the same period a year ago.
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