ForecastIQ sees retailer comps forecasts growing slightly

Columbus, Ohio – Forecasts for same-store-sale growth are inching upward for retailers from a year ago, according to the latest ForecastIQ report.

Proper Technologies’ January ForecastIQ found that of the 27 retailers it tracks every month, eight are likely/almost certain to see an increase in same-store sales over in February and March, compared to seven in January 2009. More retailers are predicted to be flat and fewer are forecast to post declines through March, “indicating retailers aren’t necessarily as ‘sick,’ but not yet on the road to a full recovery,” ForecastIQ said.

Surveyed retailers inclined to an “almost certain increase” came to four, up from three last year. Those who chose a “likely increase” remained at four year over year; a “flat” vote doubled to four from two, and a “likely decline” resulted the same. And an “almost certain decline” dipped to 11 from 16 retailer votes.

ForecastIQ noted that an “almost certain increase” indicator means that in February and March, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago.

Ross, TJX, Aeropostale and Buckle are almost certain to see an increase in same store sales through March. However, both Aeropostale’s and Buckle’s projected growth have leveled off since last year, while Ross and TJX made larger strides. Warehouse clubs BJ’s and Costco are likely to see an increase, according to the report.

 “On the other hand, forecasts remain soggy for higher-priced retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Gap and Neiman Marcus; they are almost certain to post declines. Hot Topic is almost certain to see a decline as well, whereas a year ago they were likely to experience an increase.”

ForecastIQ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing more than seven years of data from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same-store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers. Same-store sales forecasts represent by percent growth over the next 45- and 75-day period.


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